Washington – The elections in Florida and Wisconsin have become key tests of President Donald Trump’s Political party two months after his second mandate in the White House.
On Tuesday of Marquesina’s career it is for a swing seat in the Supreme Court of Wisconsin, a technically non -partisan choice that has attracted at least $ 90 million in expenses. Trump and multi -million dollar advisor ELON ALMIZCLE They are supporting the conservative judge Brad Schimel, while progressive billionaires and Democrats support the liberal Susan Crawford.
Two seats in the Florida Congress in Florida could give the Republican party a space to breathe in the camera strictly divided. But Democrats in both districts have far surpassed their republican counterparts, and national Republicans have publicly concerned in particular for the race to replace Mike Waltz, now Trump’s national security advisor.
Here are the places to see how the vote results are reported on the night of the elections:
In any state election in Wisconsin, Democrats tend to win through large margins in the populated counties of Milwaukee and Dane (Madison Hogar). But the size of that victory is usually an important factor in who wins throughout the state, especially in a close contest.
In 2024, the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris led Milwaukee with 68% of the votes and the Danish with 75% while losing little throughout the state. That same night, American Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin ran about 2 percentage points ahead of Harris in both counties and won the re -election little.
In 2023, the candidate of the Supreme Court of the Democratic Party, Janet Protasiewicz, received 73% of the votes in Milwaukee and 82% of the votes in Dane and won throughout the state by a margin of 11 percent.
Republicans tend to do well in the suburban counties of Milwaukee of Washington, Ozaukee and Waukesha, the so -called “Wow” counties. A strong republican sample in these counties can help counteract the democratic advantage in urban areas. Republican candidates have led the three counties in all the main state elections that date back to at least 2016.
Republican candidates tend to win Brown County, which houses Green Bay, but not for great explosions. Trump took the county in his three presidential campaigns with between 52% and 53% of the votes.
But since the 2016 elections, there have been two Democrats who took Brown County and won throughout the state: Tony Evers in their offer for governor in 2018 and more recently ProtasEwicz in his career of the State Supreme Court of 2023.
A Democrat can still win throughout the state without winning Brown (such as Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, the re -election of Evers in 2022 and the three races of Baldwin’s Senate). But if they carry Brown, it will probably be a difficult night for Republicans.
Sauk County, northwest of Madison, is a competitive area in the state elections that generally ends up supporting the Democratic candidate, although with thin margins. It falls somewhere in the middle of the 72 Wisconsin counties in terms of population, and the margins are usually so small that state elections do not usually win or lose in Sauk.
Democrats or candidates backed by Democrat had a long winning streak in Sauk, having taken the county in eight of the last 10 main state elections. But the two exceptions are notable: Trump took Sauk in 2016 and 2024, when Wisconsin and the White House won.
Although Sauk will probably not assume a decisive role in Tuesday’s elections, a victory there by a candidate backed by Republicans can be a good sign for the party throughout the state.
Democrats feel encouraged by the strong fundraising actions of their nominees to replace Waltz and the former Florida Mattz representative Mattz, but the special elections take place in two districts of the congress that for a long time have been safe republican territory.
Trump received about 68% of the votes in 2024 in the first district of the Panhandle Congress in Florida, slightly exceeding 66% of Gaetz received in its re -election offer. In the sixth district of Congress on the Atlantic coast, Trump received approximately 65% of the votes, just behind 67% of waltz received in its last re -election offer of the Chamber.
The four counties that make up the first district have voted for Republican presidential candidates almost continuously during the last 60 years. Only Walton County went to a Democrat on one occasion since 1960, although the four voted for the Democratic candidate converted into Independiente George Wallace in 1968. Today, the part of Walton County that is within the first district is the most reliable Republican of the four counties.
Republican presidential candidates have led the six counties in the sixth district for the last four presidential elections. The Republican winning streak in some of the counties dates back for decades before that. Lake County, for example, has not supported a Democrat for the president from Franklin Roosevelt in 1944. Trump and Waltz served better in Putnam County, where both received around 74% of the votes.
If the Democrats manage to achieve disorders in the districts of the first or sixth place, the first indications may be in their best performance counties.
Given the republican advantage in both districts, the best areas of the Democrats are still places where Republicans served well. In the first district, Trump and Gaetz did relatively the worst in Escambia County, although they still received 59% and 57% of the county vote, respectively.
In the sixth district, Democrats can do better in Volusia County, where Trump received 58% and Waltz received around 60%. Republican presidential candidates have led Volusia in the last four elections, but the area used to be a more friendly territory for the Democrats, who won the county during six consecutive elections from 1992 to 2008.
