Washington – The United States inflation may have cooled a little last month, but it could be a brief postponement such as President Donald Trump duty It is expected to keep high prices in the coming months.
On Wednesday, the work department is expected to report that in February the consumer price index increased 2.9% compared to the previous year, according to economists surveyed by FACTSET. Which would be slightly down from 3% in January and the first fall in five months. Fell to a minimum of 3 1/2 years of 2.4% in September.
The central prices are also expected to exclude the volatile categories of food and energy, slide to 3.2%, below 3.3% in January. Economists observe the central prices closely because they often provide a better reading about where inflation is directed.
However, both measures have largely struck at the levels achieved last summer, when an inflation withdraw promised as a candidate to “eliminate inflation.”
And with imposing Trump, or threatening to impose, a wide range of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, China, Europe and India, most economists predict prices growth will probably remain raised this year.
“There is no real progress towards that goal of 2%,” said Dan North, a senior economist of Allianz Trade Americas, a financial services firm. “I suspect that you will begin to see that inflation numbers go in the other way.”
It is unlikely that Wednesday’s update moves inflation fighters in the Federal Reserve much closer to reduce their key interest rate, than they reduced three times Last year in the midst of signs that inflation was fading. The president of the FED, Jerome Powell, said in January that the target cuts were Waiting And another reduction is very unlikely at the FED meeting next week.
Monthly, it is projected that the main and main prices have increased 0.3% in February since the previous month. That would be an improvement from January, when general inflation increased 0.5%, but increases at that rate are still too large to obtain inflation annually to 2% of the Fed.
The biggest wild card for the Fed, and The economy in general – They are Trump’s tariffs and threats to impose more. Since its inauguration in January, Trump has imposed 20% taxes on all imports from China, and 25% of tariffs in imports from Canada and Mexicoalthough most of these rates have been suspended for a month.
On Wednesday, the administration increased tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum Up to 25%, promising that taxes would help create factory jobs in the United States at a time when Trump’s consumption tariffs are threats are shaking the stock market and increase the fears of an economic slowdown.
The European Union responded in kind almost immediately Announcing a commercial action with new duties on industrial and agricultural products of the United States.
Trump has promised reciprocal duties in countries that tariff exports from the United States, including Europe, India and South Korea on April 2.
The duties have been dragged Financial markets and could abruptly slow down the economy, with some analysts raising the probabilities of a recession.
Economists in Yale’s budget laboratory calculate That the reciprocal tariffs, in themselves, could increase the average rate rate of the United States to its highest level since 1937, and cost to the average home up to $ 3,400.
In addition to rates, some things are expected, such as eggs, they have received even more expensive Last month, pushing the highest inflation. Aviar flu He has forced farmers to kill more than 160 million birds, including 30 million in January. The average prices of eggs reached $ 4.95 per dozen throughout the country in February, a record. The price had been constantly below $ 2 per dozen for decades before the disease attacked.
Economists will also closely observe the prices of new and used cars, car insurance, airline tickets and rentals, among other items, to have a broader sensation of where inflation can be directed. Gasoline prices are expected to have fallen last month.
In general, tariffs are expected to, according to economics textbooks, generate only a unique increase in prices, but not necessarily continuous inflation. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent made that case In comments In the New York Economic Club last week, while recognizing that prices could be higher.
“We could get a unique price adjustment,” he said. “Access to cheap products is not the essence of the American dream.”
But the fed chair Jerome Powell Noticed on Friday That in some cases the tariffs could worsen inflation, for example, if promulgated as a “series” of price increases that made consumers expected inflation to move higher.
“What really matters is what is happening with long -term inflation expectations,” Powell added. Powell said that short -term expectations for price increase have increased, partly due to concern for tariffs, although long -term expectations have been stable.
Even the perception that prices will increase can turn on inflation if households and companies alter their behavior in advance to compensate for those price increases. Some companies can start charging customers if they wait for their own costs to increase, for example.
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AP writers Josh Boak and Paul Wiseman in Washington, and Lorne Cook and David Mchugh in Europe, contributed to this report.
