Bangkok – He Commercial War The president of the United States, Donald Trump, has intensified in his second term is a challenge for all Asian, large and small economies, in an era in which the most populous region in the world is expected to drive global economic growth.
The manufacture of exports and free trade helped transform China and other Asian countries into economic powers in recent decades. Trump’s RatesIn order to force companies to maintain or establish their factories in the United States, they are breaking the trade agreements often made at a great political cost for commercial partners.
The White House says that the criteria for raising rates will include Not only commercial deficits from the United States But also several taxes, exchange rates, government subsidies and various non -tariff commercial barriers. Apart from the rates that will be announced on Wednesday “Liberation Day“As Trump calls it, 25% tariffs in imports of cars and autopartes They must enter into force on Thursday.
Trump has also ordered taxes against China, Canada and Mexico; expanded tariffs in steel and aluminumand tariffs imposed on countries that import oil from Venezuela. Plan more import taxes on pharmaceutical drugs, wood, copper and computer chips.
The highest costs have already led many manufacturers to move away from China to other economies in the south and southeast of Asia, Africa and Latin America. But for now the prevailing uncertainty about what Trump will do with what he calls “reciprocal” rates can lead more to sit and see what comes next.
“There is no script on how reciprocal rates have a price, and uncertainty is the only constant,” said Stephen Innes of Spi Asset Management.
Here is a look at how the highest rates in the United States could affect some important Asian economies.
Despite some decrease in trade since Trump launched a commercial war with China during his first term, the United States commercial deficit has continued to rise, reaching $ 295.4 billion last year.
China, the world number 2 economy, has been strongly inclined in exports to compensate for the weak demand at home. The ruling communist party has made exports of carsEspecially electric vehicles and batteries a priority, but 27.5% of tariffs in car exports and 102.5% of the duties in EVs have closed the US market for their car manufacturers. China is the second largest auto parts supplier for the United States behind Mexico.
During Trump’s first mandate, the highest tariffs led the leader Xi Jinping to defend a change to high -tech production. That will probably continue as the pressure of the United States intensifies, causing job losses due to changes in manufacturing instead of direct damage to rates, said Raymond Yeung of Anz Research in a report.
As Trump has launched rounds of tariffs that have accumulated in an additional 20%, China has raised Its own import tariffs, aimed at agricultural products in the United States. He also extended export controls, especially in strategically important minerals used in high -tech electronics.
US exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to China have fallen since the beginning of the year, and they are expected to fall more after Beijing imposed a 15% rate In the USA. Imports of LNG.
Shigeru ishiba Prime Minister He said Tuesday That his government was making the last efforts for the United States to exclude his country from automatic tariffs. The United States absorbs approximately one fifth of Japan exports, or around 1.5 million passenger cars per year.
Although the main manufacturers of Japanese cars such as Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. has factories in the United States and more and more, in Mexico, it is an important industry at home. Almost 5.6 million people work on car -related works, according to the Japan car manufacturing association.
Exports of electronics, machinery, chemicals and steel of Japan are also potential objectives. A central bank survey published on Monday found a commercial feeling among the great manufacturers worsened In the last quarter, for the first time in a year. The Nikkei 225 Share reference point of Tokyo has fallen more than 10% in the last three months, while the actions of Toyota Motor Corp. have fallen by 27%.
More than 60% of the economy of the self -governor island comes from exports, and conducted a commercial surplus with the USs of almost $ 74 billion last year. Computer chips are one of Taiwan’s largest exports to the United States, along with computers and other office machines and consumer products.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. is expanding its US factories in Arizona, attracted by US incentives and their own strategic needs. In early March, its CC Wei CEO promised $ 100 billion in new investments in the United States.
South Korea made a commercial surplus of $ 66 billion with the USA last year, and the cars, electronics and computer chips were a large part. The country could boost investments in making cars, steel and semiconductors in the United States and also consider reviewing the Korea-US free trade agreement to promote the most balanced trade, said Patrick Cronin of the Hudson Institute in a recent report.
South Korea is among several large LNG importers who can try to buy more US gas. UU. To help balance trade, Rabobank researchers said in a recent report.
Like most of its residents in Southeast Asia, Vietnam has emulated Japan, China and other large export nurses to depend on foreign trade and investment to develop their economies.
He had the third largest commercial surplus with the United States last year, after Mexico and China, at $ 123.5 billion. Its greatest exports are machinery, textiles and footwear.
A 14% increase in exports helped Vietnam’s economy to expand at an annual rate of 7.1% last year. The government recently said that it would reduce tariffs on LNG, cars, ethanol and some other agricultural products, movements destined to placate Trump and reduce its commercial surplus. Vietnam has also agreed to allow a five -year launch of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite Internet service.
The most populous country in the world directed a commercial surplus of almost $ 46 billion with the United States in 2024, according to the United States commercial representative office. The main exports are medications and chemicals to make them, pearls, diamonds and other gems.
Exports represent just under a quarter of Indian GDP, which provides millions of jobs, and the United States is its largest foreigner market.
